Key Questions on Syria's Recent Turmoil

Syria’s fragile balance has been shattered again raising critical questions about the future of Syria and the region. Let me break down the complex web of actors and agendas.

Anyone claiming to know exactly what’s going to happen in Syria is either guessing or grandstanding. And neither is helpful. Ignore them.

After nearly a decade and a half, Syria is back in the headlines. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel group long confined to the northwest, has stunned observers by seizing Aleppo and now advancing toward Hama.

For years, it appeared that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had clawed back most of the territory lost to rebels since the uprising erupted in 2011, when peaceful protests in Deraa spiraled into a brutal civil war.

The last few years offered a mirage of stability, with Assad consolidating power thanks to the military and political backing of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Iran-linked militias like Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi. But this supposed calm masked the reality: Syria was never truly whole again. The country splintered into zones of influence. HTS controlled the northwest. Turkey-backed rebels (once the Free Syrian Army) held a sliver of the nor…