That secret letter that sparked HTS’ transformation

Year 2015. Syria's de-facto leader al-Jolani receives a letter of directives. The final point reads: Do not attack the West.

Caption from a recent interview Al Jolani gave to US broadcaster PBS.

We are now in the phase of getting to know Syria’s new de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharra—formerly al-Jolani—and his jihadist organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Have they moderated? Western media keeps asking, hoping the answer is yes.

But what does "moderation" mean for a jihadist group? Do we even know what the concept entails within the jihadist paradigm—or, to be frank, in any paradigm?

Most political scientists lean on the inclusion-moderation framework as an analytical tool. I don’t. To use it effectively, one must define "moderation" so comprehensively that the concept becomes cumbersome. The framework posits that an open road to electoral participation encourages extremist ideas to moderate. In other words, inclusion within the system leads to an intuitive shedding of radical positions.

Here’s the problem: moderation often gets conflated with democratic practices, which muddies the waters. If the system itse…