The successes of Erdogan abroad and unhappiness it conceals at home

It is realpolitik in its purest form. The bitter irony is that the Palestinians, and even the people of Turkey, remain excluded from its rewards.

At the Türkiye Century Meetings Closing Program in Istanbul, PresidentErdoğan declared last week (25 October) that “Türkiye is transforming into a global power. Today, when peace, tranquility, and stability are mentioned, Türkiye comes to mind first. Compassion, mercy, and justice evoke this noble nation first in people’s minds.”

He went on to claim that “from Syria to Gaza, from the Gulf to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, no equation can be established without Türkiye.” In his telling, “there is now a Türkiye that is respected both in its region and around the world, a nation that exports peace and stability.” His performance is typical of the moments when he blends hyperbole and grievance to inflate the state’s reach and conceal its deepening fragility.

The key is to see Erdogan era Turkish policy towards Israel and Palestine as a dual-track enterprise that mixes maximalist public rhetoric with quiet, intelligence-led bargaining. The first track secures domestic legitimacy, a…