Update on the major issues: Hormuz, Houthis, Mecca Pact, Israel and Turkey

The rivalry between Israel and Turkey. The fading buffers behind Hormuz's muted oil shock. The older origins of the Mecca Pact, fuel protests in Syria and the Houthis' advances.

• Israel and Turkey - the crux of the problem

• Strait of Hormuz - Quo vadis oil prices?

• Mecca Pact - Whose idea?

• Syria, protests and the economy

• Houthis’ ‘successes’

Hello hello, merhabalar, ahlan wa sahlan bikum…

I am back after a two-week break in which I marked a few graduate exams and read a couple of extraordinary theses. So I am ready for the next academic year, as Michaelmas, the first term of the Oxford year, is on the horizon.

So I thought it would be best to start off by gauging where we are in the region on a few critical matters.

Israel and Turkey - The crux of the problem

Erdoğan addresses the 81st UN General Assembly in New York on 22 September 2026, calling on countries to increase pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza, which he described as “our time’s most inhumane, most embarrassing concentration camp.”

The tension between the two countries seems to be in an interregnum, but it has certainly not subsided. In his speech to the UN General Assembly this week, Erdoğan spoke with …