Two issues this week: the AKP’s inner circle is palpably concerned about a direct clash with Israel, while Hezbollah and the SDF/PKK face stalled disarmament
I agree the Doha strike imposes real diplomatic costs and complicates mediation and it also hardens Turkish threat perceptions because it normalizes extraterritorial targeting. But I am not sold on the immediacy of Türkiye–Israel kinetic confrontation yet. Because the incentives and constraints still push both Ankara and Jerusalem to signal and spar indirectly rather than shoot at each other directly. Israel hitting Türkiye requires long-range strikes into a NATO country with layered air defenses which would be a massive escalation and diplomatically radioactive. To hit Israel directly, Türkiye would need overflight or basing solutions and accept very high escalation risk. Far easier to pressure Syria/Eastern Med or via law enforcement/intelligence tools at home.
Valla, I’m not entirely convinced a direct clash is on the cards either. That said, as I wrote in the piece, there is genuine fear among AKP apparatchiks—whether fed by solid intel or not. My hunch is the latter. And let’s face it, everything we thought impossible 4–5 years ago has already happened. As for NATO, I doubt Turkey’s membership is the deterrent it’s supposed to be.
I doubt either side wants a straight shot-for-shot exchange now. I expect indirect pressure and signaling to dominate, with real danger sitting in miscalculation rather than intent. On NATO, at the end of the day, I agree the membership isn’t a magic shield, but the diplomatic/economic costs it implies still matter, which is often enough to keep everyone under the threshold. It could be different this time though we aren't privy to the conversation all these thugs have behind closed doors.
Trade between Israel and Turkey may have slowed, but it still continues in the background, the link is alive. The Doha strike shows that Israel is ready to act beyond Gaza, which increases the pressure on Turkey. At some point, Ankara will have to choose a side — and that moment is not far.
Increasingly adventurous boundary testing by the israeli security apparatus, the list of their transgressions are growing by the day. Conflict is only becoming more likely because of their inability to face the facts- they’ve become a pariah in the region. But this shouldn’t mean that our own leaders should fall into risky tit-for-tats, we mustn’t let ourselves fall to their level or risk the lives of Turkish citizens.
I agree the Doha strike imposes real diplomatic costs and complicates mediation and it also hardens Turkish threat perceptions because it normalizes extraterritorial targeting. But I am not sold on the immediacy of Türkiye–Israel kinetic confrontation yet. Because the incentives and constraints still push both Ankara and Jerusalem to signal and spar indirectly rather than shoot at each other directly. Israel hitting Türkiye requires long-range strikes into a NATO country with layered air defenses which would be a massive escalation and diplomatically radioactive. To hit Israel directly, Türkiye would need overflight or basing solutions and accept very high escalation risk. Far easier to pressure Syria/Eastern Med or via law enforcement/intelligence tools at home.
Valla, I’m not entirely convinced a direct clash is on the cards either. That said, as I wrote in the piece, there is genuine fear among AKP apparatchiks—whether fed by solid intel or not. My hunch is the latter. And let’s face it, everything we thought impossible 4–5 years ago has already happened. As for NATO, I doubt Turkey’s membership is the deterrent it’s supposed to be.
I doubt either side wants a straight shot-for-shot exchange now. I expect indirect pressure and signaling to dominate, with real danger sitting in miscalculation rather than intent. On NATO, at the end of the day, I agree the membership isn’t a magic shield, but the diplomatic/economic costs it implies still matter, which is often enough to keep everyone under the threshold. It could be different this time though we aren't privy to the conversation all these thugs have behind closed doors.
Trade between Israel and Turkey may have slowed, but it still continues in the background, the link is alive. The Doha strike shows that Israel is ready to act beyond Gaza, which increases the pressure on Turkey. At some point, Ankara will have to choose a side — and that moment is not far.
Agreed.
Increasingly adventurous boundary testing by the israeli security apparatus, the list of their transgressions are growing by the day. Conflict is only becoming more likely because of their inability to face the facts- they’ve become a pariah in the region. But this shouldn’t mean that our own leaders should fall into risky tit-for-tats, we mustn’t let ourselves fall to their level or risk the lives of Turkish citizens.
İnşallah.